Bitcoin Jumps 5% After Trump’s Surprise Tariff Pause

On April 9, Bitcoin surged past $83,500, gaining 5% in under an hour, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs—excluding China. The move brought a temporary wave of optimism across financial markets, lifting both stocks and crypto.

• 📈 S&P 500 soared 8%.

• 📈 Bitcoin reclaimed levels not seen since April 6.

Despite the sharp rebound, BTC traders remain cautious, as macroeconomic uncertainty—especially around U.S. Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy—continues to cloud the outlook.

Traders Still Cautious Amid Bond Market Volatility

BTC’s price jump wasn’t fully mirrored by derivatives sentiment.

• The BTC futures premium briefly crossed the neutral 5% threshold but lacked follow-through.

• The options market still priced in balanced risk, with the 25% delta skew returning to 3%, a neutral zone after spiking to 12% earlier in the day.

Much of the hesitation comes from the volatile 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which traders see as a barometer of faith in U.S. fiscal health. Rising yields mean higher borrowing costs and could strengthen the dollar — generally bearish for Bitcoin.

“We can draw a line at around the 4.40% level,” said economist Peter Boockvar, warning of declining foreign demand for U.S. debt.

Retail Interest Climbs, But Bulls Still Wait

Retail traders appear more optimistic than institutions:

• 📊 Bitcoin's 30-day futures funding rate hit 0.9%, its highest in over six weeks — signaling leverage build-up in perpetual futures.

• However, that figure is still in the neutral range, showing no real conviction among bulls yet.

Even as the put-call skew and funding rates show signs of stabilizing, the lack of a clear bullish trend in derivatives suggests traders are still waiting for macro clarity — particularly around rate cuts and U.S.-China trade tensions.

 So What Would Flip Sentiment to Bullish?

Analysts suggest that BTC may not gain full momentum until:

• 🟢 U.S. 10-year yields drop.

• 🟢 Rate cut odds improve.

• 🟢 Geopolitical tensions ease.

• 🟢 Clear institutional inflows return.

For now, the market is watching the Fed, the bond market, and China's response to U.S. trade moves. Bitcoin is stuck in the middle of it all — reactive, but not quite ready to break out.