Caution Clouds the Crypto Horizon
Crypto traders are turning defensive as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches, weighing the potential delay in rate cuts. This hesitation has already dulled Bitcoin’s recent upside, with traders spooked by macro signals and major sell-offs. One of the biggest concerns came from a $9 billion Bitcoin liquidation by a Satoshi-era whale through Galaxy Digital — one of the largest such transactions ever recorded.
Adding to the uncertainty, long-term holders (LTHs) and market analysts are voicing concerns that Bitcoin’s bull market could be peaking in the coming months. Some are already exiting positions, citing that the rally is beginning to lose steam.
Powell Under Pressure, But No Rate Cuts Yet
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has continued to hold off on rate cuts, citing persistent inflation, particularly due to tariff-driven price pressures. While Powell met recently with President Trump, no shift in policy has followed, and markets have priced in a 96% chance that rates will stay unchanged after the upcoming FOMC meeting.
Still, two rate cuts are anticipated by the end of the year, according to CME FedWatch data. Meanwhile, economic stressors are building. The U.S. housing market shows troubling echoes of the 2008 crisis, and macro metrics like the DXY climbing above 98.90 and a volatile 10-year Treasury yield (around 4.40%) are adding pressure.
The inflation outlook is also heating up again, with PCE data suggesting a 0.3% month-over-month rise, adding to the hawkish mood among Fed officials.
A Cycle Top in Sight?
Sentiment is rapidly shifting toward a potential cycle peak. Long-time investors like Willy Woo have reportedly exited their BTC holdings. At the same time, a massive Bitcoin put option was opened on Deribit, betting the price will slide below $110,000 — the largest such put in the platform’s history.
Analysts point to historical cycles, especially the 12–18 months post-halving peak window, which suggests Bitcoin may top out between mid-September and October. Galaxy Digital’s role in the recent $9.3 billion exit by a Satoshi-era whale further fuels this theory, as does waning institutional appetite — both MicroStrategy and Metaplanet declined to make fresh BTC buys this month.
Volume Dips, Whale Activity Spikes
On-chain data also tells a cautious tale. Trading volumes are down, with Matrixport predicting August will bring consolidation unless a major catalyst emerges. Meanwhile, a retreat in NAV premiums and shifting funding dynamics, another red flag for sustained bullish momentum.
At the exchange level, the Coinbase Premium Gap has gone negative again, implying weak U.S. demand. Similarly, the Kimchi Premium is still negative, pointing to Asian markets shorting Bitcoin. Whales are quietly selling into strength, with analysts now predicting a slowdown toward $110K–115K zones before any recovery.
Bitcoin Stalls as Market Softens
Bitcoin is struggling to break new highs. As of now, it’s trading around $118,900, with a tight 24-hour range between $117,441 and $119,273. The MVRV Ratio at 2.34 signals an overheated market, with potential for further downside if long-term holders continue trimming positions.
Some analysts see parallels with the 2021 “double-top” pattern, suggesting another local high may already be in. Unless new catalysts arise — regulatory breakthroughs, ETF approvals, or bullish macro surprises — Bitcoin could be heading for a sharp correction rather than a moonshot.
