A Breakthrough After 40 Days of Stalemate
The U.S. Senate has reached a bipartisan agreement to end the prolonged federal government shutdown, a move that could restore stability across financial markets, including the cryptocurrency sector, which has faced stagnation during the closure. The proposal passed a key 60–40 procedural vote, and lawmakers are preparing for a final vote later this week before the legislation heads to the House.
The shutdown has now lasted 40 days, leaving public services halted, federal workers unpaid, and key agencies unable to conduct regulatory oversight. Crypto markets, which are particularly sensitive to policy uncertainty, have struggled during this period, as investors wait for clarity before deploying capital.
The Shutdown’s Toll on Financial and Crypto Markets
During the early days of the shutdown, Bitcoin briefly surged to around $126,080, as some investors viewed crypto as a hedge against political dysfunction. But as the shutdown dragged on, sentiment weakened. Bitcoin’s price dropped over 17%, falling toward $104,370, reflecting a broader slowdown in market activity.
This decline coincided with President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China, which triggered volatility and hesitation across global markets. Analysts note that institutional investors considering large crypto allocations paused, uncertain of when regulatory operations and government-supported financial functions would restart
Why the Senate Agreement Matters for Crypto
The Senate’s three-part budget plan aims to fund the government through the end of January, extend Affordable Care Act tax credits, and prevent additional federal worker layoffs—measures designed to restore operational stability as negotiations continue.
If the shutdown ends, federal agencies responsible for crypto oversight and compliance-including the SEC, CFTC, IRS, and Treasury divisions-can resume their work. For digital assets, policy clarity is often just as important as market liquidity, and the reopening may reduce hesitation among both retail and institutional investors.
Market Participants Are Watching the Timing
Prediction markets are already pricing in a likely reopening. On Polymarket, the probability of the government reopening between Tuesday and Friday jumped from 27% to 54%. Traders are also evaluating the timing of a potential $2,000 tariff-funded dividend proposed by President Trump, which, if enacted, would act as another liquidity boost to risk assets, including crypto.
Historical precedent also supports bullish expectations. During the 2018–2019 shutdown, Bitcoin rose from roughly $3,550 to nearly $13,000 within five months after the government reopened, as market confidence and capital inflows returned.
What Comes Next for Bitcoin and Altcoins
Analysts expect the market to respond most strongly in the first 24 to 72 hours after the government officially reopens. Trading volumes will be closely monitored, as they serve as one of the clearest indicators of renewed investor confidence.
If institutional inflows resume, Bitcoin and major altcoins may begin a recovery phase, potentially accelerating if stimulus expectations and improving regulatory clarity reinforce market optimism. However, if the Senate delays or disputes emerge, markets may remain choppy, and crypto prices could continue to fluctuate.
