Bitcoin could be approaching the final stages of its prolonged market correction, according to new analysis from asset manager VanEck.
Researchers including Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel examined 12 indicators included in the firm's “Bitcoin Capitulation Check.” Eight of those 12 signals are currently flashing, suggesting that market conditions increasingly resemble previous capitulation periods.
More significantly, all 12 indicators have entered their respective capitulation zones at least once during the past three months.
VanEck said the combination suggests the market has experienced what appears to be Bitcoin price capitulation and could now be approaching, or already entering, an accumulation phase.
Bitcoin was trading around $64,700 on Tuesday, remaining well below the record levels reached last year.
Bitcoin Remains 48% Below Its Record High
Despite the potential bottoming signals, Bitcoin remains approximately 48% below its October 2025 all-time high of around $126,300.
Since the beginning of June, however, selling pressure has stabilized considerably. Bitcoin has largely traded between approximately $58,000 and $66,500, creating a prolonged consolidation range following months of losses.
The current correction is now approaching its 11th month since Bitcoin's early October peak.
That timing is notable when compared with previous Bitcoin cycles.
According to VanEck, Bitcoin's three previous bear-market phases took an average of 12.7 months to move from their market peak to maximum drawdown.
If the current cycle follows a broadly similar pattern, the historical timeline could point toward September through November as a potential transition period from correction into accumulation.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Renewed Demand
Another potentially supportive development is the return of institutional demand through US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The funds recorded just under $300 million in combined net inflows on Monday, representing their strongest single day of inflows since May 5.
Spot ETFs have significantly changed Bitcoin's market structure compared with earlier bear markets by providing regulated investment vehicles for institutional and traditional investors.
VanEck expects these products to contribute to a potentially shallower market trough than Bitcoin experienced during previous cycles.
The asset manager also pointed toward Bitcoin's broader institutional ownership base and the absence of widespread industry failures comparable with FTX, Celsius and Terra Luna, which intensified the previous crypto downturn.
Capitulation Signals Aren't a Guaranteed Buy Signal
Despite the improving indicators, VanEck cautioned against interpreting its capitulation model as a guaranteed short-term Bitcoin buy signal.
Historically, periods in which eight to 12 of the firm's indicators were simultaneously flashing did not necessarily produce immediate rebounds.
VanEck found that average Bitcoin returns over the following 90 and 180 days were actually below the broader baseline during comparable periods.
That means capitulation signals can indicate that significant selling pressure has already occurred without identifying the exact timing or price of a market bottom.
Bitcoin could therefore remain within its current range or experience additional volatility even if the broader correction is approaching its final stages.
Long-Term Holders Reduce Bitcoin Positions
Onchain data provides another signal that the market is undergoing a significant transition.
The amount of Bitcoin held for longer than one year declined by approximately 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days, bringing the total to around 11.84 million BTC.
As a result, long-term holders now control less than 60% of Bitcoin's circulating supply for the first time in months.
The movement suggests that some long-term investors have been distributing coins despite Bitcoin trading substantially below its record high.
Still, VanEck's broader collection of indicators suggests that the nearly 11-month correction may be approaching a transition point. With capitulation signals accumulating, ETF demand returning and Bitcoin consolidating after a substantial drawdown, the coming months could determine whether the market finally shifts from correction toward accumulation.
