US Crypto Market Structure Bill Faces Possible Delay Until 2027

Midterms Inject Fresh Uncertainty Into Crypto Legislation

The long-awaited US crypto market structure bill may not become law until 2027, as election politics and conflict-of-interest concerns begin to weigh heavily on Capitol Hill. According to a new warning from TD Cowen, the upcoming 2026 midterm elections could stall momentum for the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, delaying not just passage but full implementation until 2029.

Analysts from TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group say Senate Democrats may hesitate to back sweeping crypto legislation ahead of the November midterms. With control of Congress potentially shifting, lawmakers are reportedly reluctant to take politically risky votes that could be weaponized during campaigns.

The bill-known as the CLARITY Act in the House and advanced in the Senate under the Responsible Financial Innovation Act framework-was once viewed as a near-term priority. Now, TD Cowen believes its most realistic path forward opens after the elections, when political pressure eases and deal-making becomes easier.

Trump Crypto Ties Complicate Democratic Support

A major sticking point remains conflict-of-interest concerns tied to President Donald Trump and his family. A bipartisan draft released by the Senate Agriculture Committee in November included safeguards that could restrict government officials and their relatives from holding cryptocurrencies or participating directly in the industry.

Those provisions are widely seen as targeting Trump’s growing footprint in crypto, which includes ties to World Liberty Financial, the Official Trump memecoin, the mining venture American Bitcoin, and his pardon of former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao.

Many Democrats argue that passing market structure rules without addressing these conflicts would legitimize behavior they view as problematic. Republicans, meanwhile, have shown little appetite for restrictions that would apply to Trump personally-making compromise difficult before the elections.

Why Delay Could Actually Favor Passage

Ironically, TD Cowen suggests that time may ultimately help the bill pass. If lawmakers wait until 2027 and schedule implementation for 2029, the conflict-of-interest provisions may become politically irrelevant-especially if Trump is no longer in office.

In that scenario, crypto firms would gain regulatory clarity, Democrats would avoid voting amid election pressure, and Republicans could sidestep restrictions tied directly to Trump. Still, this would require the industry to accept that final rules could shift depending on the 2028 presidential election.

Markup Expected, but Passage Far From Guaranteed

Despite the uncertainty, the legislative process is still moving. The Responsible Financial Innovation Act is awaiting markup in both the Senate Banking Committee and Senate Agriculture Committee, with reports indicating the Banking Committee may act in mid-January.

If eventually signed into law, the bill would significantly reshape US crypto oversight by granting greater authority to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, reducing the role of the Securities and Exchange Commission. 

Notably, both agencies are currently led exclusively by Republican commissioners, following recent departures and with no Democratic replacements yet named by the White House-another political wrinkle that could influence timing.

Crypto Clarity Still Coming-But Not Soon

For now, the message from Washington is clear: regulatory clarity is likely, but patience will be required. While the crypto industry continues pushing for rules to replace enforcement-driven oversight, US lawmakers appear content to let the clock run—at least until the political risks subside.